A UTRGV political science lecturer says Gov. Greg Abbott’s plan to reopen Texas may have a drastic uptick in coronavirus cases, particularly in metropolitan areas, such as Dallas and Houston, and popular gathering spots.
“So, that’s one concern,” Andrew Smith said in an interview with The Rider Tuesday. “The other is that all the progress that we do seem to be making as far as testing, as far as available beds and ventilators and such, that that’s going to get undone because of the surge. Finally, there’s the simple fact that if you do have a surge, presumably, you’re going to have to snap back into place all of the restrictions you just lifted, making it a waste of time and also dragging out the duration of economic lockdown, which ultimately will just hurt everybody in the state. So, I think those are the main concerns about opening up right now.”
As of press time, there are a total of 21,944 cases reported and 561 deaths in the state, according to Texas Health and Human Services. The Rio Grande Valley has a total of 619 COVID-19 cases and 14 deaths:
–321 cases and nine deaths in Cameron County;
–281 cases and four deaths in Hidalgo County;
–10 cases and one death in Willacy County; and,
–seven cases in Starr County.
Abbott issued three executive orders last Friday to begin the reopening of Texas while revising hospital capacity and certain social distancing guidelines, according to a news release from the Office of the Texas Governor last Friday.
“The way I’ve interpreted what Abbott is doing, when he says reopen Texas, he wants to return to business as usual or, at the very least, lift most of the social distancing and gathering restrictions that would allow businesses to operate,” Smith said. “His concern is that; particularly, with the latest downturn in oil prices in the U.S., the longer businesses, particularly smaller businesses, remain shuttered, the worse Texas’ economy is going to do.”
Economics Associate Professor Salvador Contreras said small businesses are hurting by the inability to open and be operating at a normal capacity.
“This has meant that individuals have lost jobs or got let go or reduced hours, or that small business owners have seen a hit to their incomes,” Contreras said. “And so, reopening Texas would mean an additional aid to these individuals.”
Contreras said there are roughly 1.2 million Texans who have filed for unemployment insurance in the last four weeks.
The first executive order issued, created the Strike Force to Open Texas, which is composed of medical experts, and private and public leaders who will advise the governor on strategically reopening the state, according to the news release.
“This is a collection of medical experts and corporations and businesses, mostly corporations and business leaders, who will get together and discuss how to balance the alleged need to reopen everything with the possible health concerns that go with lifting restrictions too early,” Smith said.
James Huffines, the chair of Southwestern Medical Foundation, will lead the advisory strike force while Mike Toomey, a Texas lobbyist, will serve as the chief operating officer of the organization. Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick, House Speaker Dennis Bonnen, Attorney General Ken Paxton and Comptroller Glenn Hegar will serve as consulting members.
The second executive order will be in effect until May 8 and aims to loosen restrictions that will allow doctors to diagnose and treat medical conditions without needing to get an exception, such as a diagnostic test for suspected cancer, Abbott said in a news conference last Friday.
Smith said, “While doctors can still not perform non-essential surgeries, they now may resume performing surgeries for medically necessary procedures.”
The third executive order relates to the strategic reopening of select services and activities in Texas. The order establishes a “Retail-to-Go” model that allows retail outlets to reopen on Friday. Reopened establishments are required to deliver items to customers’ cars, homes or other locations to minimize contact.
“So, in the [third] order, where he calls for the introduction of this ‘Retail-to-Go’ model, it would mean that retail establishments that are beyond the essential business designation, they are able to open in some limited capacity,” Contreras said. “And, so, when they’re able to open, they’ll be able to make sales and the state will be able to generate revenue from new sales as well as local municipalities.”
Contreras said because Texas does not impose a state income tax, reopening will help the economy.
“The state is highly dependent [on] revenue and a large number of taxes that the state issues, among the most important … is sales tax,” he said. “So, every time we go to the store and buy something [and] buy … furniture, for example, we pay a sales tax. Generally, it’s 6-and-a-quarter percent. … These sales taxes to the state of Texas represent almost 60% of the total revenue to state coffers. So, every transaction that is not being made, it’s revenue to the state that is not coming in.”
Contreras said motor vehicle sales also represent an important source of revenue–about 9% depending on vehicle sales and rental taxes–for the state.
“These two important components are or have been drastically reduced,” he said. “The state is hurting for revenue to be able to finance, for example, public education, roads, public safety, health care, etc. So, the state is highly dependent. The state has a stake in reopening the economy as soon as it’s safe to do so.”
Asked if Abbott should continue the reopening of Texas, Smith replied, “It’s hard for me to say … because testing, while increasing, has not perhaps been at the level that it should be.”
Smith said it is difficult to know how many cases there are, the recovery rate and whether the curve is really flattening or not.
“It’s also important to remember that the flattening of the curve of hospital admissions and so forth is different,” he said. “Every part is going to be different in parts of Texas. The Valley, for example … we could hit our peak as early as next week, as late as the end of May and, you know, it’s important to remember that viruses don’t exactly respect boundaries and borders. So, I would say based on what I do know … I applaud the governor for willing to take a very wait-and-see approach, but I still think he’s ending the restrictions too soon because there are still a lot of ‘ifs’ and a lot of ‘don’t knows.’”
